Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

An all-island approach to mapping bovine tuberculosis in Ireland

This study used techniques in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to explore the spatial patterns of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the whole island of Ireland over an 11-year period. This is the first time that data pertaining to TB from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland have been collated and examined in an all-Ireland context. The analyses were based on 198, 156 point locations representing active farms with cattle in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland between the years 1996 and 2006. The results consist of a series of maps giving a visual representation of cattle populations and associated detected bTB levels on the island of Ireland over this time interval

Universal Ecological Patterns in College Basketball Communities

The rank abundance of common and rare species within ecological communities is remarkably consistent from the tropics to the tundra. This invariant patterning provides one of ecology's most enduring and unified tenets: most species rare and a few very common. Increasingly, attention is focused upon elucidating biological mechanisms that explain these species abundance distributions (SADs), but these evaluations remain controversial. We show that college basketball wins generate SADs just like those observed in ecological communities. Whereas college basketball wins are structured by competitive interactions, the result produces a SAD pattern indistinguishable from random wins. We also show that species abundance data for tropical trees exhibits a significant-digit pattern consistent with data derived from complex structuring forces. These results cast doubt upon the ability of SAD analysis to resolve ecological mechanism, and their patterning may reflect statistical artifact as much as biological processes

Climate gradients, and patterns of biodiversity and biotic homogenization in urban residential yards

Residential yards constitute a substantive biodiverse greenspace within urban areas. This biodiversity results from a combination of native and non-native species and can contribute to biotic homogenization. Geographical climatic patterns affect the distribution of native species and may differently affect non-native species. In this study, we examined biodiversity and biotic homogenization patterns of yard-dwelling land snails across 12 towns in Oklahoma and Kansas (USA). The 3 x 4 array of towns incorporated a N-S winter temperature gradient (mean low January temperature range = -8.4 to 0.1°C) and an E-W annual rainfall gradient (annual rainfall range = 113.8 to 61.3 cm/yr). Ten yards per town were surveyed. We hypothesized that mild winter temperatures and greater annual rainfall would be associated with greater snail abundance and richness, and that the presence of non-native species would contribute to biotic homogenization. Non-native snails were present and often abundant in all towns. Snail communities varied with both rainfall and cold temperature. Contrary to our prediction, snail abundance was inversely related to annual rainfall–likely because drier conditions resulted in greater yard watering that both augmented rainfall and maintained moist conditions. Sørensen similarity between towns for the entire land snail community and for only non-native species both showed distance-decay patterns, with snail composition becoming less similar with increasing distance—patterns resulting from species turnover. The biotic homogenization index also showed a distance-related pattern, such that closer towns were more likely to have biotic homogenization whereas more distant towns tended to have biotic differentiation. These results support the concept that biotic homogenization is more likely regionally and that climatic changes over distance result in species turnover and can reduce spatially broad biotic homogenization.Funding was provided by the University of Oklahoma: SRI funds, Oklahoma Biological Survey small grants program, and University Libraries (all to EAB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Open Access fees paid for in whole or in part by the University of Oklahoma LibrariesYe

Geographic variation in plant community structure of salt marshes: species, functional and phylogenetic perspectives.

In general, community similarity is thought to decay with distance; however, this view may be complicated by the relative roles of different ecological processes at different geographical scales, and by the compositional perspective (e.g. species, functional group and phylogenetic lineage) used. Coastal salt marshes are widely distributed worldwide, but no studies have explicitly examined variation in salt marsh plant community composition across geographical scales, and from species, functional and phylogenetic perspectives. Based on studies in other ecosystems, we hypothesized that, in coastal salt marshes, community turnover would be more rapid at local versus larger geographical scales; and that community turnover patterns would diverge among compositional perspectives, with a greater distance decay at the species level than at the functional or phylogenetic levels. We tested these hypotheses in salt marshes of two regions: The southern Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. We examined the characteristics of plant community composition at each salt marsh site, how community similarity decayed with distance within individual salt marshes versus among sites in each region, and how community similarity differed among regions, using species, functional and phylogenetic perspectives. We found that results from the three compositional perspectives generally showed similar patterns: there was strong variation in community composition within individual salt marsh sites across elevation; in contrast, community similarity decayed with distance four to five orders of magnitude more slowly across sites within each region. Overall, community dissimilarity of salt marshes was lowest on the southern Atlantic Coast, intermediate on the Gulf Coast, and highest between the two regions. Our results indicated that local gradients are relatively more important than regional processes in structuring coastal salt marsh communities. Our results also suggested that in ecosystems with low species diversity, functional and phylogenetic approaches may not provide additional insight over a species-based approach

Global Patterns of City Size Distributions and Their Fundamental Drivers

Urban areas and their voracious appetites are increasingly dominating the flows of energy and materials around the globe. Understanding the size distribution and dynamics of urban areas is vital if we are to manage their growth and mitigate their negative impacts on global ecosystems. For over 50 years, city size distributions have been assumed to universally follow a power function, and many theories have been put forth to explain what has become known as Zipf's law (the instance where the exponent of the power function equals unity). Most previous studies, however, only include the largest cities that comprise the tail of the distribution. Here we show that national, regional and continental city size distributions, whether based on census data or inferred from cluster areas of remotely-sensed nighttime lights, are in fact lognormally distributed through the majority of cities and only approach power functions for the largest cities in the distribution tails. To explore generating processes, we use a simple model incorporating only two basic human dynamics, migration and reproduction, that nonetheless generates distributions very similar to those found empirically. Our results suggest that macroscopic patterns of human settlements may be far more constrained by fundamental ecological principles than more fine-scale socioeconomic factors

β-Diversity and Species Accumulation in Antarctic Coastal Benthos: Influence of Habitat, Distance and Productivity on Ecological Connectivity

High Antarctic coastal marine environments are comparatively pristine with strong environmental gradients, which make them important places to investigate biodiversity relationships. Defining how different environmental features contribute to shifts in β-diversity is especially important as these shifts reflect both spatio-temporal variations in species richness and the degree of ecological separation between local and regional species pools. We used complementary techniques (species accumulation models, multivariate variance partitioning and generalized linear models) to assess how the roles of productivity, bio-physical habitat heterogeneity and connectivity change with spatial scales from metres to 100's of km. Our results demonstrated that the relative importance of specific processes influencing species accumulation and β–diversity changed with increasing spatial scale, and that patterns were never driven by only one factor. Bio-physical habitat heterogeneity had a strong influence on β-diversity at scales <290 km, while the effects of productivity were low and significant only at scales >40 km. Our analysis supports the emphasis on the analysis of diversity relationships across multiple spatial scales and highlights the unequal connectivity of individual sites to the regional species pool. This has important implications for resilience to habitat loss and community homogenisation, especially for Antarctic benthic communities where rates of recovery from disturbance are slow, there is a high ratio of poor-dispersing and brooding species, and high biogenic habitat heterogeneity and spatio-temporal variability in primary production make the system vulnerable to disturbance. Consequently, large areas need to be included within marine protected areas for effective management and conservation of these special ecosystems in the face of increasing anthropogenic disturbance